Why Jordin Will Win American Idol (That Has Nothing To Do With Her Singing)

I'm headed to Vegas. No, not to bet on American Idol -- although I might just place a teensy weensy wager on Jordin Sparks.

Aside from the fact that she, as Simon put it, "Wiped the floor with Blake" on Tuesday night -- there are a few other reasons to put your money on this golden-piped gal from Glendale.

As I packed my bags for Sin City, I remembered an old gamblers' adage -- "Never walk in front of a streak." That's because when it comes to betting, it's about more than just who's better on any given day or night. It's also about trends. So here are a few trends to consider.

* Of the five previous American Idol winners, three are women: Kelly Clarkson, Fantasia Barrino & Carrie Underwood.
* In male vs. female finals, women have won two out three times: Kelly Clarkson vs. Justin Guarini and Carrie Underwood vs. Bo Bice. Taylor Hicks is the only male to beat a female, Katharine McPhee.
* All five previous A.I. winners are from the South: Kelly Clarkson from Texas, Fantasia Barrino from North Carolina, Carrie Underwood from Oklahoma and both Ruben Studdard and Taylor Hicks from Alabama. In case you don't know -- Jordin is from Arizona, while Blake is just a couple hours drive from Canada in Washington state.
* And of course -- all five A.I. winners are NON-beatboxers.

But why even look at trends? After Tuesday's finale, I think the winner is a foregone conclusion.

In round one, Blake gave a pretty good repeat performance of Bon Jovi's "You Give Love a Bad Name," compared to Jordin who crooned Christina Aguilera's "Fighter." But Blake needed a knock-out punch and only landed a glancing blow.

In round two, Blake delivered a fairly unremarkable warbling of Maroon 5's "She Will Be Loved." He was obviously acting on Randy's praise last week of another Maroon 5 song, "This Love." But this tune didn't give BL the chance to highlight his pep & performance.

When Jordin sang her repeat of Martina McBride's "Broken Wing," I thought "This is why she WILL be the next American Idol!" Clearly it was all over. But it wasn't.

In round three, with both contestants singing a brand new song called "This Is My Now," Jordin showed she wasn't done by a long shot. She didn't just knock Blake out. She knocked him out, picked up his limp body, threw it out of the ring and stomped on it a few times.

Stick a fork in him -- he's done.

So, as long as I'm headed to Vegas, I might as well place a little bet. But with so many reasons to bet on Jordin, I think I'll actually put my money on Blake. The odds will be so stacked against him, the payout will be much better if by some unbelievable chance he somehow manages to win. (Some websites estimate Jordin will be minus-600 to win. That means if you bet $600 on her, you would only get $100 if she actually won.)