American Idol 6: The Pattern-Breaking Year

Tyler was no less shocked by Melinda’s American Idol elimination than everyone else. However, his surprise came more from three Top 3 patterns and one general trend getting shattered by her elimination. He really shouldn’t be too surprised, though, since this season has been full of broken patterns. Which patterns got broken? Did any remain intact? What other useless info does Tyler dole out?

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On Tuesday, even though I had my reservations, I was very confident that Melinda would go nowhere on Wednesday. When Wednesday came, Melinda went. Much like a large number of American Idol fans, I was very surprised. Yes, I was upset that my favorite performer, perhaps the most professional contestant in Idol history, missed out on the finale.

However, my surprise didn’t stem from my disappointment. Rather, it came from history not repeating itself three times over. Once more, a very common trend suddenly became out of style. Still, I probably shouldn’t have been so shocked by Melinda’s tradition-busting exit. After all, season six has been a pattern-finder’s nightmare.

Let’s start with the three patterns Melinda’s elimination destroyed. The first and most obvious pattern is sometimes known as the “first spot curse.” Throughout the first five seasons, the contestant eliminated in third place on Wednesday always performed first on Tuesday. This is an extremely well-known pattern. So much so that Sandy and I both predicted Jordin’s ouster via the pattern. Therefore, my jaw was firmly buried under the floorboards the moment Jordin was confirmed a finalist because of the broken pattern.

The second pattern that I noticed is that the third-place finisher in the first five years also appeared in the bottom two or three more times than the other two. True, Jasmine and Diana both appeared in the bottom three thrice prior to the Top 3. However, Jasmine landed in the bottom two twice, while Diana was always saved beforehand. In the other four seasons, the third-placer had more visits than the other two combined.

This season had decidedly fewer known bottom-dwellers, thanks to a Top 11 bottom two and Idol Gives Back. Still, we know that Blake landed in the bottom three for sure during Top 7 week. I can’t be sure, but it appeared that Jordin and Melinda escaped the bottom every week. Thus, once Jordin got her good news, I switched my assumption to Blake, mostly because of this pattern. Guess what? Another pattern got busted.

As I said, I expected Blake’s ouster mostly because of pattern #2. There is, however, yet another pattern that disfavored Blake. Depending on your definition of “south,” the past five winners have resided from a Southern state. Kelly and Carrie come from Texas and Oklahoma respectively, and some people don’t place them in the American South, but the Southwest. Still, we can say that at least one member of the Top 2 for the past four years hailed from a Southern state, since Bo is an Alabaman. Melinda, who comes from Tennessee, fits this description more than Jordin (Arizona, which is considered Southwest) and Blake (Washington state, which is very north). I guess this pattern should now be called the 37th parallel rule, as at least one of the two finalists live south of that latitude. In fact, this will only be the second season that only one finalists fit the rule (the first being season one with Pennsylvanian Justin).

There was one more trend broken by Melinda’s elimination, and I’ll get to that later. But first, I’d like to show that even with three patterns broken by one elimination, there were quite a few others shattered this season.

Let’s start with the Top 12, which had its share in breaking three other patterns. The first is that the 12th-place finisher for each year with a Top 12 has been female. The second is that the 10th place finisher for each year with a Top 12 has also been female. This year, those contestants were Brandon and Chris Sligh respectively. Although Chris has likened himself to Christina Aguilera, I’m pretty sure both have Y chromosomes.

As well, I’m pretty sure Chris was not in the bottom three during Top 12 week, so the pattern says he should have been safe until at least the Top 9. This is because all four previous tenth-placers appeared in the bottom three during Top 12 week. In fact, only Jessica was not also in the bottom two during the Top 12 (though it is interesting to note that Mikalah, who was in the bottom two, was eliminated the very next week).

If this pattern had held up, Sanjaya would have left us three weeks earlier than he did, instead of six weeks later than he should have. Phil was also in danger, but he didn’t leave until the week that should have been the Top 5.

Speaking of the Top 5, another well-known pattern was broken this year, if only by default. For each of the first five seasons, whoever performed second during Top 5 week was eliminated that very same week. That didn’t happen this season because, well, there was no Top 5. Because of Idol Gives Back, none of the Top 6 were eliminated.

Instead, two were eliminated the following week. However, if we still considered performing second (or fourth from last) a cursed position during this week, we’d still be wrong. Phil performed first, while Chris performed fifth. And don’t look at the Idol Gives Back positions either, since Chris performed first and Phil performed fifth. In other words, another long-standing pattern goes bust.

There are two patterns, however, that are still intact, even after this odd season. First, we have the “two chair curse.” For the last three seasons, there has been a rather useless episode with the final 40-ish contestants learning whether America will vote for them or they’ll never get to audition again (a rule that is just plain stupid). Each contestant takes a long walk to a chair where they await their fate. At the end, two males and females each take the walk simultaneously, and only one each makes the Top 24. Neither makes the Top 12, though, as for the past three seasons, both two-chair contestants were eliminated during Top 16 week. It happened to Travis and Amanda two years ago. It happened to Will and Kinnik last year. And keeping with the pattern (for once), it happened to Sundance and Antonella this year.